Janice Coen, a Project Scientist in the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Laboratory, investigates the dynamics and prediction of wildland fires.
She uses the CAWFE coupled weather- wildland fire model, which combines a numerical weather prediction model designed for microscale (100s - 1000 m grid spacing) simulations and a fire behavior module that models where a fire spreads, how fast, and how fast fuel is consumed. Other studies analyze data from an infrared imager, which shows the thermal energy being released by the fire, to understand the dynamics within the fire line. Together, she uses them to study how fires create their own weather - what makes fires spread as fast as they do and in what direction, as well as why they commonly gather themselves to an interface between burning and unburning fuel called a 'fire line', create fire whirls, bow into fingers as they spread, and create dangerous fingers of flame that shoot ahead of the fireline.
This work initially aimed to understand how interactions between weather and the fire created many wildland fire phenomena. More recent work has applied CAWFE to reproduce past large fire events. Coen and university collaborators have used these case studies and imagery from the infrared imager in studies to help understand past fatality events and improve firefighter safety. Her teams have been developing data assimilation of active fire detection data from satellites, aircraft, UAS, and other sources to better model fire growth. They are now using this in practical applications to anticipate wind extrema reportedly associated with the ignition of recent California wind-driven fire events and to forecast wildfire behavior.
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