P53 Operational air quality forecast for the Gulf of Mexico. Phase 1: meteorological evaluation.
Garcia, Agustin, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Mexico, CCA, Mexico, Victor Almanza, Cuauhtemoc Turrent, and Favio Medrano, Ensenada Center for Scientific Research and Higher Education (CICESE), Mexico
In November 2018
an Operational Air quality forecasting system was implemented for the region
encompassing the Gulf of Mexico. The model is driven with the near real-time
GFS operational fields at 0.5˚. The atmospheric chemistry of the forecasting
system is resolved with the WRF-chem model using the RADM2 chemical mechanism.
The emissions are taken from the US NEI 2011, the CAMS Global ship emissions,
the Mexican NEI 2014 and the biogenic emissions are represented with the
on-line MEGAN model.
In this work, the evaluation of surface meteorological variables of the
operational forecast for the winter season is presented. These variables
include 2m temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and wind direction. The
model evaluation was conducted with the NCEP Unified Post Processor (UPP) and
the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification package, using the NCEP PrepBufr
ADP Global Upper Air and Surface Observations (DS337.0 dataset). Additional
plots and statistics were obtained with the R openair package. Results show
agreement between the model and observations for these variables both inland
and over the ocean.