8/4/2020 Update:
Real-time forecasts have ended for Spring 2020. This website will remain available to view archived forecasts from 1 March 2020 - 4 August 2020.
About the forecasts
These probabilistic convective hazard forecasts are generated with a real-time, 00 UTC initialized, convection-allowing deterministic WRF forecast run at NCAR, combined with trained machine learning models, including a random forest (RF) and neural network (NN). A smoothed mid-level updraft helicity (UH)-based forecast is also available.
The probabilities produced using the NN, RF, or UH are defined for an event occurring within 2 h of a forecast hour and 40 km or 120 km of a grid point. The web interface provides options for visualizing the 4-h hazard probabilities or aggregating the 4-h hazard probabilities across forecast hours to provide a summary of where severe weather is expected on a given day (select “12Z-12Z Max Prob”).
Other visualization options include showing the hazard that produces the largest probabilities at a given grid point (select “Max Prob Hazard”) and the forecast hour when the largest probabilities occur (select “Max Prob Timing”).
Any feedback on the forecasts, the configuration choices, or the visualization interface can be directed to sobash (at) ucar.edu. Thanks for visiting!
Real-time forecasts have ended for Spring 2020. This website will remain available to view archived forecasts from 1 March 2020 - 4 August 2020.
About the forecasts
These probabilistic convective hazard forecasts are generated with a real-time, 00 UTC initialized, convection-allowing deterministic WRF forecast run at NCAR, combined with trained machine learning models, including a random forest (RF) and neural network (NN). A smoothed mid-level updraft helicity (UH)-based forecast is also available.
The probabilities produced using the NN, RF, or UH are defined for an event occurring within 2 h of a forecast hour and 40 km or 120 km of a grid point. The web interface provides options for visualizing the 4-h hazard probabilities or aggregating the 4-h hazard probabilities across forecast hours to provide a summary of where severe weather is expected on a given day (select “12Z-12Z Max Prob”).
Other visualization options include showing the hazard that produces the largest probabilities at a given grid point (select “Max Prob Hazard”) and the forecast hour when the largest probabilities occur (select “Max Prob Timing”).
Any feedback on the forecasts, the configuration choices, or the visualization interface can be directed to sobash (at) ucar.edu. Thanks for visiting!
Real-time forecasts have ended, archived forecasts available from 1 March - 4 August 2020
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