10.1 An Examination Of Interesting Properties Regarding A Physics Ensemble

Bassill, Nick P., University of Wisconsin: Madison

Prior research has demonstrated that various parameterizations in the WRF-ARW model have statistically significant biases for various meteorologically important fields. With this understanding, a real-time physics ensemble was run during the 2008 and 2009 North Atlantic Hurricane season. Using the data generated from that ensemble, an analysis of some of these biases was performed, primarily in relation to the large scale environment and circulation. Some of these results will be discussed in this presentation. In addition, this ensemble data was used to study various aspects of ensemble forecasting, with an emphasis on using the inherent biases found in different parameterizations in a productive way. Some of these results will also be presented.