2.5    Air Force Weather Agency Operational Ensembles

Kuchera, Evan, Rentschler, Scott, Creighton, Glenn, Hamilton, Jeff, Rugg, Steve, Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt AFB, NE

The Air Force Weather Agency implemented its Ensemble Prediction System (AFWEPS) on 28 March 2012.  The mesoscale configuration (MEPS) consists of 10 members of WRF-ARW with varied physics packages and deterministic global model initial conditions.  Forecasts include near-global coverage at 25 km to 144 hours and regional 4 km coverage to 60 hours.  Features include storm-scale diagnostics, online dust, and tailored ensemble products.  Future developments include a susbtantial expansion of intra-WRF diagnostics, climatological applications, and on-demand data services.