Kong, Fanyou, Center for Analysis and Prediction of
Storms, University of Oklahoma, Ming Xue, Center for Analysis and Prediction of
Storms and School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, and co-authors
The 2012 NOAA HWT Spring
Experiment runs from May 07 to June 08, 2012. Since 2007, CAPS provides
storm-scale ensemble forecasting (SSEF) products to the annual HWT Spring
Experiment. Unlike past years, the
2012 CAPS SSEF runs twice daily, adding a 1200 UTC initiation, with 15-member
36-h baseline ensemble forecasts. The 0000 UTC initialized SSEF consists of 28
multi-model multi-physics ensemble members using four NWP modeling systems
(WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM, ARPS, and COAMPS). The 1200 UTC addition of ensemble allows
the assessment of skillfulness of morning initiation against 0000 UTC
initiation to the severe storm probabilistic guidance. New in 2012 is the
simulated GOES satellite IR channel brightness temperatures computed from three
different radiative transfer models (RTMs) including RTMs from NESDIS/JCSDA
Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM), CIRA, and CIMMS, respectively. Probabilities and ensemble means of
these simulated synthetic GOES-R infrared imagery are generated in realtime as
part of upgraded real-time post-processing package in supporting the GOES-R Proving
Ground Project. The experimental
convection initiation (CI) and lightning threat products are
refined/recalibrated based on evaluations from 2011 Spring Experiment dataset.
The WRF newly added stochastic kinetic-energy backscatter (SKEB) perturbation
option is applied to a small group of members to allow evaluation of its impact
to the SSEF performance at convection-permitting grid resolution. New products,
comparison of 00 and 12 UTC ensemble forecasts skill, and other SSEF
performance evaluation will be presented on the Workshop.