Norton, Parker and John Stamm, USGS South Dakota
Water Science Center
The Weather Research and
Forecasting Model (WRF) was used to simulate climate at a 36 kilometer
resolution for North America for 2000–2050, based on Community Climate
System Model 3.0 SRESA2 scenario boundary and initial conditions. Estimation of
lake surface temperatures was based on daily-average land surface air
temperature as a proxy coupled with a USGS land use dataset that identifies
lakes. Other adjustments include updates of deep soil temperature using a 150
day lag, smoothing at domain boundaries, and a specified boundary width of 10
grid cells. Physics options
include WSM6 microphysics, CAM shortwave and longwave radiation,
Monin–Obukhov surface layer scheme, Noah land surface model, YSU boundary
layer, and Kain–Fritsch cumulus scheme. Validation of temperature and
precipitation for grid points within the Missouri River Basin (MRB) was based
on comparison with output from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on
Independent Slopes Model. WRF simulation for the MRB temperatures indicate
increases in spring, summer, and autumn with greatest increase in autumn
(1.9–3.1¡C). Summer
precipitation in the MRB is projected to decrease 50 mm (4–95 mm at 95%
confidence interval), with no clear trend indicated for other seasons.