P26  CWRF Prediction of Crop Distribution and Application

Liu, Shuyan and Liang, Xin-Zhong, University of Maryland, Wei Gao, USDA-UVB Monitoring and Research Program, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University

Distribution and adaptation of 968 crops is simulated by a coupling system of CWRF (Climate extension of the WRF) and a common crop distribution-adaptation-suitability model (CDAS). The coupling system is developed based on the crops requirements of soil (texture, pH, drainage) and climate (temperature, precipitation, growing season length, minimum winter temperature), validated by the established crops (maize, soybean, wheat, cotton) distribution, harvest and yield. The model consists of two basic components. The first component includes the procedures to evaluate the individual soil and climate variables suitability by comparing local conditions to crop requirements. The second component combines the soil and climate suitability scores into an overall suitability score that has both a quantitative (numerical value) and qualitative description. The initial results of suitability maps for maize and soybean show good agreement with corresponding USDA distribution data. This indicates the CWRF-CDAS coupling system has the ability to predict crop distribution and adaptation under future climate change.