Jensen, Tara, National Center for Atmospheric
Research/RAL, Edward Tollerud, NOAA/ESRL, Evan Kuchera, AFWA, Brian Etherton,
NOAA/ESRL, Linda Wharton, NOAA/ESRL, Scott Rentschler, AFWA, Paul Oldenburg,
NCAR/RAL, John Halley-Gotway, NCAR/RAL, Barbara Brown, NCAR/RAL
The Developmental
Testbed Center (DTC) collaborated with two organizations this past winter to
evaluate their WRF-based regional storm-scale ensemble forecast systems. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration/Earth Systems Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division
(NOAA/ESRL/GSD) ensemble was initialized using a 9 km resolution covering
southern Oregon and California; a 3 km nest was embedded to provide fine scale
details over the American River Basin.
The Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) provided a 4km run that matched GSDs
outer domain. In addition, DTC
evaluated the 32-35 km Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system from
NOAA/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) as an operational baseline. Evaluation of the two storm-scale
and the meso-scale ensemble system were performed from 25 December 2011 –
15 April 2012. Evaluation
variables included QPF as well as several state variables: temperature,
specific humidity, winds, and height. Precipitable water and freezing level
were also evaluated to provide insight into ensemble response to critical
forecast variables for cool-season precipitation events on the west coast. Preliminary results will be provided,
along with a discussion of how the AFWA and GSD ensembles performed as compared
with the SREF operational baseline.