Mesquita, M.d.S., Bjerknes Centre for Climate
Research and Uni Research, Norway, dlandsvik, B., Bjerknes Centre for Climate
Research and Institute of Marine Research, Norway, Bruyere, C.L., The National
Center for Atmospheric Research, USA, and Sandvik, A.D. Bjerknes, Centre for
Climate Research and Institute of Marine Research, Norway
The fast-paced
development of state-of-the-art limited area models and faster computational
resources have made it possible to create simulations at increasing horizontal
resolution. This has led to a ubiquitous demand for even higher resolutions
from users of various disciplines.
This study revisits one
of the simulations used in marine ecosystem projects at the Bjerknes Centre. We
present a fresh perspective on the assessment of these data, related more
specifically to: a) the value added by increased horizontal resolution; and b)
a new method for comparing sensitivity studies.
The assessment is made
using a Bayesian framework for the distribution of mean surface temperature in
the Hardanger fjord region in Norway. The normal and inverse-gamma
distributions are applied to the conjugate prior distribution. Population
estimates are calculated based on samples from the joint posterior distribution
generated using a Monte Carlo procedure.
The Bayesian statistical
model is applied to: a) output data from the Weather Research and Forecasting
(WRF) model at three horizontal resolutions (9, 3 and 1 km); b) Station-based
observational data; and c) ERA Interim and NCEP NCAR Reanalysis. The period
considered in this study is from 2007 to 2009, for the months of April, May and
June.