7A.8 Prediction of North American air quality

Pfister, Gabriele, S. Walters, J.-F. Lamarque, M. Barth, G. Holland, J. Done, National Center for Atmospheric Research, and Jerome Fast, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

We setup WRF-Chem as a nested regional climate model with chemistry (NRCM-Chem) to study possible changes in weather and air quality over North America between present-day and a future time period (2046-2055). The performed simulations are targeting insights into expected future changes due to changing emissions and climate, and will also be used for dynamical downscaling (of meteorology and air quality) of global climate simulations performed at NCAR in support of the 2013 IPCC AR5. The project is using NRCM-Chem over the conterminous U.S. at a resolution of 12 km x 12 km and considers feedbacks between chemistry and meteorology. We will present first results focusing on predictions of surface ozone and the driving factors behind future changes.