7B.6 Evaluating WRF v3.4.1 simulations of Tropical Cyclone Yasi

Parker, Chelsea, Amanda Lynch, Brown University, and Todd Arbetter, CRREL

Tropical Cyclone Yasi was a rapidly intensifying storm that reached category 5 intensity, and made landfall on the Queensland, Australia coastline on the 3rd of February 2011. The operational guidance leading up to the event was impressively accurate in terms of track, timing and landfall, but, was less successful in capturing the intensification towards shore. This study addresses the simulation of this event using WRF 3.4.1 in a nested domain using ERA-Interim reanalysis products as boundary conditions and high resolution initial conditions from the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. This study explores the sensitivity of the cyclone’s track, timing, minimum central pressure and pressure at landfall to microphysics, convection, boundary layer and the use of a tropical storm surface flux and a simple ocean mixed layer model. While a "best" simulation configuration is non-unique, some key factors affecting track and intensification will be discussed.