P51 Uncertainty propagation from WRF to a Lagrangian particle dispersion model

Angevine, Wayne M., and Jerome Brioude, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, and Nationl Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Pollutant transport simulation with Lagrangian models depends on meteorological fields from a model such as WRF. Uncertainty in the transport simulation depends on uncertainty in the met fields in ways that are neither simple nor fully understood. Here, we present results from a small ensemble of 5 WRF configurations each driving a FLEXPART simulation for California. We discuss the relationships between ensemble spreads of wind, PBL height, and pollutant concentrations.