P61 Integrated wind power planning tool

Rosgaard, Martin Haubjerg, Andrea Noémi Hahmann, Poul Ejnar Sorenson, Gregor Giebel, Henrik Madsen, Technical University of Denmark, and Torben Skov Nielsen, ENFOR A/S, Denmark

For any energy system relying on wind power, accurate forecasts of wind fluctuations are essential for efficient operation. Within the framework of the Danish public service obligation funded project PSO10464 "Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool" three research tasks aim to address this issue. Wind farm power time series and nacelle wind speed measurements will form the basis of comparison for four daily 48-hour WRF forecasts at 18km, 6km and 2km resolutions for all of 2012. The test sites include wind farms offshore, onshore and inland; namely the 209MW "Horns Rev 2" and 23MW "Rejsby Hede" wind farms in western Denmark, and the 78MW "Stor-Rotliden" wind farm in central Sweden. One research objective is to quantify the extend to which downscaling resolves wind variability. Another research objective is to represent the forecast error statistically in the frequency domain. The final research objective is to identify suitable explanatory variable candidates for development of a statistical model which will output wind power point forecasts, related probabilistic forecasts, as well as frequency contents, accounting for the spatio-temporal dependence of the wind power variability.