P62 Renewable energy resource assessments from over a year of high-resolution rapid refresh short-range weather forecasts

James, Eric, Curtis Alexander, Brian Jamison, and Stan Benjamin, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Resource assessments of atmospheric variables relevant to the renewable energy industry are a valuable tool for power generation infrastructure siting. These assessments typically make use of relatively sparse surface-based field observations with a long period of record.

In this study we employ more than a year of short-range hourly weather forecasts from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) WRF-based numerical weather prediction model. These forecasts have the advantage of complete coverage of the continental United States. Short-range (two-hour) forecasts are used to allow the HRRR to develop small-scale (3-km) details after initialization from the 13-km Rapid Refresh model but also to minimize the introduction of model forecast errors.

We show long-term averages of the 80-m (turbine height) wind field, as well as total incoming shortwave radiation at the surface. Specific meteorological features related to orography and land/water boundaries are highlighted. In addition, we examine the frequency of exceedance of several wind speed thresholds that are of practical use to the wind energy industry. A normalized measure of hourly wind speed variability is also discussed. These results highlight a number of high resource regions, both in terms of wind and solar energy.