3.2 Development of the ensemble QPF products in Central Weather Bureau

Hong, Jing-Shan, Treng-Shi Huang, Central Weather Bureau, Ming-Zhang Wu, Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute

A WRF based ensemble prediction system (EPS) was operated in Central Weather Bureau (CWB) of Taiwan. Many ensemble Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) technique based on the data mining was developed in CWB. A so-called ETQPF/ETWIND (Ensemble TyphoonQPF/Wind Speed forecast) technique was developed to probe the ensemble database according to the prior estimate of the typhoon track. ETQPF has been demonstrated its sucess on the risk assessment process. The clustering technique also applied to summarize the uncertanity and provide the senerio of the QPF. In addition, the pattern reconigtion technique also used to conduct the Quantitative Precipitation Nowcastion from the near-realtime ensemble QPF.