3.3 Insights from model physics errors from a CONUS-wide ensemble

Fovell, Robert, and Alex Gallagher, University at Albany, SUNY

The Big Weather Web (BWW) project is a multi-university effort to create a sharable ensemble of WRF-ARW simulations for the conterminous United States (CONUS) at 20 km horizontal resolution. The ensemble was established in January 2016 and consists of 45 members (of which the University at Albany contributes 13), all initialized from either GFS or GEFS at 0000 UTC. The Albany members emphasize model physics variations relating to the cumulus, boundary layer, and land surface schemes.

We have conducted extensive verification of daily simulations for a warm (July) and cool (December) season month. Verification was conducted using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) package utilizing surface ASOS/AWOS stations and radiosondes. This effort has revealed systematic issues with some physics packages and combinations that lead to forecast errors. The analyses are suggesting ways that some physics schemes may be improved.