9.4 Evaluating Tropical Cyclone Prediction in MPAS

Wang, Wei, David A. Ahijevych, Chris Davis, and Bill Skamarock, National Center for Atmospheric Reserach/Mesoscale and Microscale Meterorology Laboratory

The performance of MPAS in predicting tropical cyclones is evaluated in the 2016 season over the Western Pacific basin. A variable resolution of the model at 15 to 60 km grid sizes was run from July 1 through end of October. Normal tropical cyclone performance statistics will be presented. The results show that with an updated cumulus and surface physics, the model performance has improved. The performance of the physics used in this real-time evaluation has led to the designation of 'tropical' physics suite in the WRF model Version 3.9 release.