P71 Verification of MPAS Forecasts Over Antarctica

Powers, Jordan G., and Kevin W. Manning, National Center for Atmospheric Research

The Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) is a real-time numerical weather prediction capability that provides model guidance for the forecasters of the U.S. Antarctic Program. While AMPS has run the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model since 2006, over the past two years it has begun to also employ the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS), an emerging global model designed to capture down to the cloud scale. As this is the first dedicated operation of MPAS in a polar region,
this study presents a systematic look at MPAS's performance in such an environment.

The study considers MPAS surface and upper-air verification across the continent. It also looks at both austral summer and winter periods to investigate possible seasonal differences. A comparison with WRF,
the main AMPS model, is done to assess MPAS's relative performance. Preliminary results show that MPAS surface errors overall are larger than those of WRF; upper levels are more similar. The results are overall encouraging for MPAS, which in this application is run at a lower resolution than WRF and with fewer of the polar settings available to WRF.