K. Singh, Vellore Institute of Technology, Vellore, India

The prediction of an extremely severe cyclonic storm (ESCS) is one of the challenging issue in the changing climate scenario due to the increasing intensity and life cyclone of the ESCSs. In the study an ESCS Fani that developed over Bay of Bengal region during 2019 and made landfall over Odisha coast is investigated. The numerical experiments are conducted with Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) model by using moving nest option at 3 km horizontal resolution. The high resolution (25 km) NCEP operational Global Forecast System GFS) analysis and forecast datasets are used to derive the initial and boundary conditions. The forecasted track and intensity of the ESCS Fani is validated with available India Meteorological Department (IMD) best-fit track datasets. Results show that the track, landfall (position and time) and intensity in terms of minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) and maximum surface wind (MSW) of the storm is well predicted in the moving nest option of the WRF model. The structure in terms of relative humidity, water vapor, maximum reflectivity and temperature anomaly of the storm is also compared with available observation. Overall, it is concluded that the moving nest option of the WRF model is providing good performance in the prediction of Bay of Bengal cyclone Fani.