- Surface Conditions
- 2-m Temperature / 10-m Wind
- Ens Mean | Ens Max | Ens Spread | Postage Stamps
- 2-m Dewpoint / 10-m Wind
- Ens Mean | Ens Max | Ens Spread | Postage Stamps
- Precipitation
- 1-hr Precip
- Prob Matched Mean | Ensemble Max
- Neighbor Prob: > 0.01 in | > 0.25 in | > 0.5 in | > 1.0 in | > 2.0 in
- 6-hr Precip
- Ens Mean | Ensemble Max | Ensemble Min
- 12-hr Precip
- Ens Mean | Ensemble Max | Ensemble Min
- 24-hr Precip
- Ens Mean | Ensemble Max | Ensemble Min
- Accum. Precip
- Ens. Mean | Prob Matched Mean | Postage Stamps
- Neighbor Prob: > 1.0 in | > 2.0 in | > 3.0 in | > 6.0 in | > 10.0 in
- Reflectivity
- Ensemble Max: Comp Refl | 1 km AGL Refl
- Prob Match Mean: Comp Refl | 1 km AGL Refl
- Neighborhood Prob > 40 dBZ: Comp Refl | 1 km AGL Refl
- Paintball > 40 dBZ: Comp Refl | 1 km AGL Refl
- Postage Stamps: Comp Refl | 1 km AGL Refl
- Member Viewer: Comp Refl & UH
- Ensemble Mean Fields
- Wind/Height: 250 mb | 500 mb | 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
- Temperature: 250 mb | 500 mb | 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
- Relative Humidity: 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
- Dewpoint: 850 mb | 925 mb
- Ensemble Spread Fields
- Height: 250 mb | 500 mb | 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
- Wind Speed: 250 mb | 500 mb | 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
- Temperature: 250 mb | 500 mb | 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
- Dewpoint: 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
- Winter Precip
- 1-hr Accumulation
- Snow: Ens Mean | Prob Match Mean | Stamp
- Snow Neighbor Probs: > 1" |
> 2" |
> 3"
- Freezing Rain: Ens Mean | Prob Match Mean | Stamp
- 6-hr Accumulation
- Snow: Ens mean | Ens max
- Freezing rain: Ens mean | Ens max
- 12-hr Accumulation
- Snow: Ens mean | Ens max
- Freezing rain: Ens mean | Ens max
- 24-hr Accumulation
- Snow: Ens mean | Ens max
- Freezing rain: Ens mean | Ens max
- Running total accumulation
- Snow: Ens mean | Prob Match Mean | Stamp
- Snow Neighbor Probs: > 1" | > 3" | > 6" | > 12" | > 24"
- Snow grid-point Probs: > 1" | > 3" | > 6" | > 12" | > 24"
- Freezing rain: Ens mean | Prob Match Mean
- Sleet: Ens mean | Prob Match Mean
- Hourly-max Rotation
- Ens Max cyclonic 2-5 km AGL UH: 4-h windows | 24-h windows
- Ens Max cyclonic 0-3 km AGL UH: 4-h windows | 24-h windows
- Ens Max cyclonic 0-1 km AGL UH: 4-h windows | 24-h windows
- Ens Max anticyclonic 2-5 km UH: 4-h windows | 24-h windows
- Ens Max 1-km AGL vorticity: 4-h windows | 24-h windows
- Paintball: UH > 50 | UH > 75 | UH > 100 | UH > 150
- Neighbor Prob: UH > 50 | UH > 75 | UH > 100 | UH > 150
- Hourly-max Updraft
- Ensemble Max Updraft: 4-h windows | 24-h windows
- Paintball: UP > 10 m/s | UP > 20 m/s
- Neighbor Prob: UP > 10 m/s | UP > 20 m/s
- Hourly-max Downdraft
- Ensemble Max Downdraft: 4-h windows | 24-h windows
- Paintball: DN > 5 m/s | DN > 10 m/s
- Neighbor Prob: DN > 5 m/s | DN > 10 m/s
- Hourly-max 10-m Wind Speed
- Ensemble Max Wind Speed: 4-h windows | 24-h windows
- Paintball: WS > 10 m/s | > 20 m/s | > 30 m/s
- Neighbor Prob: WS > 10 m/s | > 20 m/s | > 30 m/s
- Hourly-max Vert. Int. Graupel
- Ens Max: Graupel
- Paintball >= 1 in: Graupel
- Neighbor Prob >= 1 in: Graupel
- Daily Severe Weather Probs
Ensemble Forecast System Configuration (homepage)
MPAS forecast configurations:
Due to computing limitations, these forecasts take some time to integrate; the full 132-h forecasts should complete by 2300 UTC. Graphics will be posted to this site as they are available. Status of the model integration and graphics generation can be found here. Some graphics will likely be missing due to random failures among the enormity of graphics "jobs" we are submitting.
NCAR staff
Craig Schwartz, Dave Ahijevych, Ryan Sobash
Computing
Forecasts are run on NCAR's Cheyenne supercomputer. Graphics are made on NCAR's Casper cluster. Both systems are maintained by NCAR's Computational and Information Systems Lab (CISL). Thanks to Ben Kirk (CISL) for help facilitating the computing.
Contact
ensemble AT ucar DOT edu
MPAS forecast configurations:
- Global forecasts initialized daily at 0000 UTC
- 5 ensemble members
- 3-km horizontal cell spacing over the CONUS; 15-km cell spacing over the rest of the globe with smooth transition:
- 132-hour forecasts
- Initial conditions provided by downscaling members 1-5 from NCEP's GEFS initial conditions
- Physics:
- Thompson microphysics
- MYNN planetary boundary layer scheme
- NOAH land surface model
- RRTMG radiation scheme
- Scale-aware "New Tiedtke" convective parameterization scheme (Wang et al. 2022)
Due to computing limitations, these forecasts take some time to integrate; the full 132-h forecasts should complete by 2300 UTC. Graphics will be posted to this site as they are available. Status of the model integration and graphics generation can be found here. Some graphics will likely be missing due to random failures among the enormity of graphics "jobs" we are submitting.
NCAR staff
Craig Schwartz, Dave Ahijevych, Ryan Sobash
Computing
Forecasts are run on NCAR's Cheyenne supercomputer. Graphics are made on NCAR's Casper cluster. Both systems are maintained by NCAR's Computational and Information Systems Lab (CISL). Thanks to Ben Kirk (CISL) for help facilitating the computing.
Contact
ensemble AT ucar DOT edu