NSF NCAR Ensemble Forecasts (MPAS)
Initialized:
Surface / Precip
Upper-Air
Severe
Hourly-Max
Domains
Surface Conditions
2-m Temperature / 10-m Wind
Ens Mean | Ens Max | Ens Spread | Postage Stamps
2-m Dewpoint / 10-m Wind
Ens Mean | Ens Max | Ens Spread | Postage Stamps
Precipitation
1-hr Precip
Prob Matched Mean | Ensemble Max
Neighbor Prob: > 0.01 in | > 0.25 in | > 0.5 in | > 1.0 in | > 2.0 in
6-hr Precip
Ens Mean | Ensemble Max | Ensemble Min
12-hr Precip
Ens Mean | Ensemble Max | Ensemble Min
24-hr Precip
Ens Mean | Ensemble Max | Ensemble Min
Accum. Precip
Ens. Mean | Prob Matched Mean | Postage Stamps
Neighbor Prob: > 1.0 in | > 2.0 in | > 3.0 in | > 6.0 in | > 10.0 in
Reflectivity
Ensemble Max: Comp Refl | 1 km AGL Refl
Prob Match Mean: Comp Refl | 1 km AGL Refl
Neighborhood Prob > 40 dBZ: Comp Refl | 1 km AGL Refl
Paintball > 40 dBZ: Comp Refl | 1 km AGL Refl
Postage Stamps: Comp Refl | 1 km AGL Refl
Member Viewer: Comp Refl & UH
Ensemble Mean Fields
Wind/Height: 250 mb | 500 mb | 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
Temperature: 250 mb | 500 mb | 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
Relative Humidity: 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
Dewpoint: 850 mb | 925 mb
Ensemble Spread Fields
Height: 250 mb | 500 mb | 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
Wind Speed: 250 mb | 500 mb | 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
Temperature: 250 mb | 500 mb | 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
Dewpoint: 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
Instability
Ens Mean: SBCAPE | MLCAPE | MUCAPE
Postage Stamps: SBCAPE
Storm-relative Helicity
Ens Mean: 0-1 km | 0-3 km
Ens Max: 0-1 km | 0-3 km
Prob 0-1 km SRH: > 100 | > 300
Prob 0-3 km SRH: > 200 | > 450
Winter Precip
1-hr Accumulation
Snow: Ens Mean | Prob Match Mean | Stamp
Snow Neighbor Probs: > 1" | > 2" | > 3"
Freezing Rain: Ens Mean | Prob Match Mean | Stamp
6-hr Accumulation
Snow: Ens mean | Ens max
Freezing rain: Ens mean | Ens max
12-hr Accumulation
Snow: Ens mean | Ens max
Freezing rain: Ens mean | Ens max
24-hr Accumulation
Snow: Ens mean | Ens max
Freezing rain: Ens mean | Ens max
Running total accumulation
Snow: Ens mean | Prob Match Mean | Stamp
Snow Neighbor Probs: > 1" | > 3" | > 6" | > 12" | > 24"
Snow grid-point Probs: > 1" | > 3" | > 6" | > 12" | > 24"
Freezing rain: Ens mean | Prob Match Mean
Sleet: Ens mean | Prob Match Mean
Hourly-max Rotation
Ens Max cyclonic 2-5 km AGL UH: 4-h windows | 24-h windows
Ens Max cyclonic 0-3 km AGL UH: 4-h windows | 24-h windows
Ens Max cyclonic 0-1 km AGL UH: 4-h windows | 24-h windows
Ens Max anticyclonic 2-5 km UH: 4-h windows | 24-h windows
Ens Max 1-km AGL vorticity: 4-h windows | 24-h windows
Paintball: UH > 50 | UH > 75 | UH > 100 | UH > 150
Neighbor Prob: UH > 50 | UH > 75 | UH > 100 | UH > 150
Hourly-max Updraft
Ensemble Max Updraft: 4-h windows | 24-h windows
Paintball: UP > 10 m/s | UP > 20 m/s
Neighbor Prob: UP > 10 m/s | UP > 20 m/s
Hourly-max Downdraft
Ensemble Max Downdraft: 4-h windows | 24-h windows
Paintball: DN > 5 m/s | DN > 10 m/s
Neighbor Prob: DN > 5 m/s | DN > 10 m/s
Hourly-max 10-m Wind Speed
Ensemble Max Wind Speed: 4-h windows | 24-h windows
Paintball: WS > 10 m/s | > 20 m/s | > 30 m/s
Neighbor Prob: WS > 10 m/s | > 20 m/s | > 30 m/s
Hourly-max Vert. Int. Graupel
Ens Max: Graupel
Paintball >= 1 in: Graupel
Neighbor Prob >= 1 in: Graupel
Daily Severe Weather Probs
CONUS
Northern Great Plains
Central Great Plains
Southern Great Plains
Northeast
Mid-Atlantic
Southeast
Southwest
Northwest
Mem 1
Mem 2
Mem 3
Mem 4
Mem 5

CREF & UH
6-hr Precip

Day 1
Day 2
Day 3
Day 4
Day 5

main image main overlay
Forecasts sponsored by the National Science Foundation, National Center for Atmospheric Research/Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Laboratory, and Computational Information Systems Laboratory
About these Forecasts || System Status || Contact us: ensemble (at) ucar (dot) edu