- Surface Conditions
- 2-m temperature | 2-m dewpoint | 2-m RH
- Precipitation
- 1-hr Precip
- 1-hr accumulated precip
- Neighbor Prob: > 0.01 in | > 0.25 in | > 0.5 in | > 1.0 in | > 2.0 in
- 6-hr Precip
- 6-hr accumulated precip
- 12-hr Precip
- 12-hr accumulated precip
- 24-hr Precip
- 24-hr accumulated precip
- Running-total Precip
- Running total accumulated precip
- Neighbor Prob: > 1.0 in | > 2.0 in | > 3.0 in | > 6.0 in | > 10.0 in
- Snowfall
- Running total snowfall
- Reflectivity
- Composite Reflectivity | Composite Refl & UH
- 1-km AGL Reflectivity
- Neighborhood Prob > 40 dBZ: Comp Refl | 1-km AGL Refl
- Isobaric Fields
- Wind/Height: 250 mb | 500 mb | 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
- Temperature: 250 mb | 500 mb | 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
- Relative Humidity: 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
- Dewpoint: 850 mb | 925 mb
- Clouds
- Cloud fraction: Total | Low | Mid | High
- Outgoing longwave radiation
- Precipitable water
- Precipitable water
- Instability
- SBCAPE | MUCAPE
- Wind shear
- 0-1 km | 0-6 km
- Storm-relative Helicity
- 0-1 km | 0-3 km
- LCL/STP
- Significant Tornado Parameter | LCL Height
- Daily Severe Weather Probs
- Winter Precip
- 1-hr Accumulation
- Snow: Ens Mean | Prob Match Mean | Stamp
- Snow Neighbor Probs: > 1" |
> 2" |
> 3"
- Freezing Rain: Ens Mean | Prob Match Mean | Stamp
- 6-hr Accumulation
- Snow: Ens mean | Ens max
- Freezing rain: Ens mean | Ens max
- 12-hr Accumulation
- Snow: Ens mean | Ens max
- Freezing rain: Ens mean | Ens max
- 24-hr Accumulation
- Snow: Ens mean | Ens max
- Freezing rain: Ens mean | Ens max
- Running total accumulation
- Snow: Ens mean | Prob Match Mean | Stamp
- Snow Neighbor Probs: > 1" | > 3" | > 6" | > 12" | > 24"
- Snow grid-point Probs: > 1" | > 3" | > 6" | > 12" | > 24"
- Freezing rain: Ens mean | Prob Match Mean
- Sleet: Ens mean | Prob Match Mean
- Hourly-max Rotation
- Max cyclonic 2-5 km AGL UH: 1-h max | 4-h windows | 24-h windows
- Max cyclonic 0-3 km AGL UH: 4-h windows | 24-h windows
- Max cyclonic 0-1 km AGL UH: 4-h windows | 24-h windows
- Max anticyclonic 2-5 km UH: 4-h windows | 24-h windows
- Max 1-km AGL vorticity: 4-h windows | 24-h windows
- Neighbor Prob: UH > 50 | UH > 75 | UH > 100 | UH > 150
- Hourly-max Updraft
- Max Updraft: 4-h windows | 24-h windows
- Neighbor Prob: UP > 10 m/s | UP > 20 m/s
- Hourly-max Downdraft
- Max Downdraft: 4-h windows | 24-h windows
- Neighbor Prob: DN > 5 m/s | DN > 10 m/s
- Hourly-max 10-m Wind Speed
- Max Wind Speed: 4-h windows | 24-h windows
- Neighbor Prob: WS > 10 m/s | > 20 m/s | > 30 m/s
- Graupel
- Hourly-max Vert. Int. Graupel
- Neighbor Prob >= 1 in
- Global quadrants
- Western Hemisphere
- Prime Meridian
- Eastern Hemisphere
- International Date Line
- Americas / Atlantic
- North America
- North Atlantic Ocean
- Northern South America
- Southern South America
- Europe and Africa
- Europe
- Mediterranean/Middle East
- Northern/Central Africa
- Southern Africa
- Asia
- China/India/SE Asia
- Japan
- Maritime Continent
- Northern Indian Ocean
- Southern Indian Ocean
- Pacific
- Northern Pacific Ocean
- Southern Pacific Ocean
- Australia / New Zealand
- Australia
- New Zealand
- Polar
- Arctic
- Antarctic
Forecast System Configuration (homepage)
MPAS forecast configurations:
The 60-h forecasts should complete by 1300 UTC. Graphics will be posted to this site as they are available. Status of the model integration and graphics generation can be found here. Some graphics will likely be missing due to random failures among the enormity of graphics "jobs" we are submitting.
Computing
Forecasts are run on NSF NCAR's Derecho supercomputer. Graphics are made on NSF NCAR's Casper cluster. Both systems are maintained by NSF NCAR's Computational and Information Systems Lab (CISL). Thanks to CISL for help facilitating the computing.
Contact
schwartz AT ucar DOT edu
MPAS forecast configurations:
- Deterministic global forecasts initialized daily at 0000 UTC
- 3-km horizontal cell spacing over the globe (65,536,002 grid columns)
- 55 vertical levels with a 30-km model top
- 60-hour forecasts
- Initial conditions provided by downscaling NCEP's GFS analysis (isobaric data) onto the MPAS mesh
- Physics:
- Thompson microphysics
- MYNN planetary boundary layer scheme
- NOAH land surface model
- RRTMG radiation scheme
- Scale-aware "New Tiedtke" convective parameterization scheme (Wang et al. 2022)
The 60-h forecasts should complete by 1300 UTC. Graphics will be posted to this site as they are available. Status of the model integration and graphics generation can be found here. Some graphics will likely be missing due to random failures among the enormity of graphics "jobs" we are submitting.
Computing
Forecasts are run on NSF NCAR's Derecho supercomputer. Graphics are made on NSF NCAR's Casper cluster. Both systems are maintained by NSF NCAR's Computational and Information Systems Lab (CISL). Thanks to CISL for help facilitating the computing.
Contact
schwartz AT ucar DOT edu