Day 1 (12Z Tue - 12Z Wed)
Day 2 (12Z Wed - 12Z Thu)
Day 3 (12Z Thu - 12Z Fri)
Day 4 (12Z Fri - 12Z Sat)
Day 5 (12Z Sat - 12Z Sun)

Severe Weather Probabilities
Ensemble probability of event occurring any time within specified time period within 25-mi of a point. Probabilities are then smoothed with Gaussian smoother (sigma=120km).

These thresholds were calibrated for Spring-time convection, and thus may not be appropriate for other periods (e.g. cool season severe weather events).
UH >= 75 m2/s2
UH >= 150 m2/s2
Severe Wind (>= 50 knots)
Heavy Precip (>= 1"/hr)
SPC Forecasts