- Surface Conditions
- 2-m Temperature / 10-m Wind
- Ens Mean | Ens Max | Ens Min | Ens Spread | Postage Stamps
- Ens Mean Sfc T Anomaly | Prob Sfc T < 32 F
- 2-m Dewpoint / 10-m Wind
- Ens Mean | Ens Max | Ens Min | Ens Spread | Postage Stamps
- Ens Mean Sfc Td Anomaly
- Misc.
- Ens Mean: Heat Index | Wind Chill | PBL Height | 2-m RH
- Prob Visibility: < 3 mi | < 1 mi | < 0.25 mi
- Ens Spread: Mean Sea-level Pressure
- Postage Stamps: Equivalent Potential Temp. | 10-m wind
- Ensemble Plumes Page
- Precipitation
- 1-hr Precip
- Prob Matched Mean | Ensemble Max
- Neighbor Prob: > 0.01 in | > 0.25 in | > 0.5 in | > 1.0 in | > 2.0 in
- 6-hr Precip
- Ens Mean | Ensemble Max | Ensemble Min
- 24-hr Precip
- Ens Mean | Ensemble Max | Ensemble Min
- Accum. Precip
- Ens. Mean | Prob Matched Mean | Postage Stamps
- Neighbor Prob: > 1.0 in | > 2.0 in | > 3.0 in | > 6.0 in | > 10.0 in
- Reflectivity
- Ensemble Max: Comp Refl | 1 km AGL Refl
- Prob Match Mean: Comp Refl | 1 km AGL Refl
- Neighborhood Prob > 40 dBZ: Comp Refl | 1 km AGL Refl
- Paintball > 40 dBZ: Comp Refl | 1 km AGL Refl
- Postage Stamps: Comp Refl | 1 km AGL Refl
- Member Viewer: Comp Refl & UH
- Ensemble Mean Fields
- Wind/Height: 250 mb | 300 mb | 500 mb | 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
- Temperature: 250 mb | 300 mb | 500 mb | 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
- Relative Humidity: 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
- Dewpoint: 850 mb | 925 mb
- Absolute Vorticity: 500mb
- Potential Vorticity: 320K PV
- Ensemble Spread Fields
- Height: 250 mb | 300 mb | 500 mb | 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
- Wind Speed: 250 mb | 300 mb | 500 mb | 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
- Temperature: 250 mb | 300 mb | 500 mb | 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
- Dewpoint: 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
- Probabilities
- Prob: 850 mb temperature < 0 C | 925 mb temperature < 0 C
- Precipitable water
- Ens mean | Postage stamps
- Simulated Satellite
- Member 1: Water Vapor | IR
- Postage Stamps: Water Vapor | IR
- Ensemble Soundings
- Ensemble Sounding Viewer
- Instability
- Ens Mean: SBCAPE | MLCAPE | MUCAPE | Lifted Index
- Ens Max: SBCAPE | MLCAPE
- Prob SBCAPE: > 500 | > 1000 | > 2000 | > 3000
- Prob MLCAPE: > 500 | > 1000 | > 2000 | > 3000
- Postage Stamps: SBCAPE
- LCL / LFC / BMIN / STP/ Echo tops
- Ens Mean: LCL Height | LFC Height | Parcel BMin
- Sig Tor Parameter (STP): Max | Mean | NEProb > 1 | NEProb > 3
- Echo tops: Max | Mean | Prob matched mean
- Neighborhood prob echo tops: > 30,000 ft | > 35,000 ft
- Wind shear
- Ens Mean: 0-1 km | 0-6 km
- Ens Max: 0-1 km | 0-6 km
- Storm-relative Helicity / Storm motion
- Ens Mean: 0-1 km | 0-3 km
- Ens Max: 0-1 km | 0-3 km
- Prob 0-1 km SRH: > 100 | > 300
- Prob 0-3 km SRH: > 200 | > 450
- Ens Mean: Bunkers Storm Motion
- Winter Precip
- 1-hr Accumulation
- Dominant 1-hr Precipitation Type
- 1-hr Probability of Winter Precip
- Snow: Ens Mean | Prob Match Mean | Stamp
- Snow Neighbor Probs: > 1" |
> 2" |
> 3"
- Freezing Rain: Ens Mean | Prob Match Mean | Stamp
- 6-hr Accumulation
- Snow: Ens mean | Ens max
- Freezing rain: Ens mean | Ens max
- 12-hr Accumulation
- Snow: Ens mean | Ens max
- Freezing rain: Ens mean | Ens max
- 24-hr Accumulation
- Snow: Ens mean | Ens max
- Freezing rain: Ens mean | Ens max
- Running total accumulation
- Snow: Ens mean | Prob Match Mean | Stamp
- Snow Neighbor Probs: > 1" | > 3" | > 6" | > 12" | > 24"
- Snow grid-point Probs: > 1" | > 3" | > 6" | > 12" | > 24"
- Freezing rain: Ens mean | Prob Match Mean
- Sleet: Ens mean | Prob Match Mean
- Hourly-max Rotation
- Ens Max: 2-5 km AGL UH | 0-3 km AGL UH (cyclonic)
- Ens Max: 2-5 km AGL UH (anticyclonic)
- Ens Max: 1km AGL Vorticity
- Paintball: UH > 50 | UH > 75 | UH > 100 | UH > 150
- Neighbor Prob: UH > 50 | UH > 75 | UH > 100 | UH > 150
- Hourly-max Updraft
- Ensemble Max Updraft
- Paintball: UP > 10 m/s | UP > 20 m/s
- Neighbor Prob: UP > 10 m/s | UP > 20 m/s
- Hourly-max Downdraft
- Ensemble Max Downdraft
- Paintball: DN > 5 m/s | DN > 10 m/s
- Neighbor Prob: DN > 5 m/s | DN > 10 m/s
- Hourly-max 10-m Wind Speed
- Ensemble Max Wind Speed
- Paintball: WS > 10 m/s | > 20 m/s | > 30 m/s
- Neighbor Prob: WS > 10 m/s | > 20 m/s | > 30 m/s
- Hourly-max Vert. Int. Graupel & Hail Size
- Ens Max: Graupel | Thomp. Hail | Hailcast | Gagne Hail
- Paintball >= 1 in: Graupel | Thomp. Hail | Gagne Hail
- Neighbor Prob >= 1 in: Graupel | Thomp. Hail | Gagne Hail
- Hourly-max Lightning Threat
- Ens Max: Ltg 1 | Ltg 2 | Ltg 3
- Lightning probability: Ltg 3 > 1 flash per 5 minutes
- Day 1 and 2 Severe Weather Probs
Data Assimilation System (go here for realtime analysis system statistics, changes on May 2, 2016)
Kate Fossell, Glen Romine, Craig Schwartz, Ryan Sobash
Collaborators
Davide Del Vento (NCAR/CISL), Ryan Torn (University of Albany), Greg Thompson (NCAR/RAL), Stan Trier (NCAR/MMM), Morris Weisman (NCAR/MMM), Dave Ahijevych (NCAR/MMM), Michael Coniglio (NOAA/NSSL), Kent Knopfmeier (OU/CIMMS), NSSL, Storm Prediction Center
External Support
NOAA HWT award NA15OAR4590191: These environmental data and related items of information have not been formally disseminated by NOAA and do not represent and should not be construed to represent any agency determination, view, or policy.
Contact
ensemble AT ucar DOT edu
- WRF-ARW V3.6.1 + NCAR Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) Modified: RMA branch
- Continuously-cycled ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF)
- Modified: 80 ensemble members (50 members prior to 2 May 2016)
- New analysis every 6-hrs
- 15-km horizontal grid spacing
- 40 vertical levels with a 50 hPa top
- Horizontal localization: 1270 km
- Vertical localization: 1.5 scale heights
- Adaptive prior inflation
- Adaptive localization
- Sampling error correction
- NEW: Spread restoration
- Freely-evolving soil states (since mid-March 2015)
- Observations: MADIS ACARS, METAR, PROFILER, RADIOSONDE; NCEP MARINE; CIMMS cloud-track winds; Oklahoma mesonet; NEW: GPS radio occultation
- Single-physics ensemble:
- Tiedtke cumulus parameterization
- Thompson microphysics parameterization
- MYJ PBL scheme
- NOAH land-surface model
- RRTMG shortwave and longwave radiation with aerosol and ozone climatologies
- WRF-ARW V3.6.1 forecasts initialized daily at 0000 UTC
- 10 ensemble members
- 3-km horizontal grid spacing
- 48-hour forecasts
- Initial conditions provided by downscaled members of 0000 UTC WRF/DART EAKF analyses (above)
- Perturbed lateral boundary conditions originating from GFS forecasts
- Physics same as data assimilation system (above) without cumulus parameterization
- Diagnostics generated from WRF-ARW and Unified Post Processor (UPP) output
- NEW: Updates to Thompson/Hailcast diagnostics
Kate Fossell, Glen Romine, Craig Schwartz, Ryan Sobash
Collaborators
Davide Del Vento (NCAR/CISL), Ryan Torn (University of Albany), Greg Thompson (NCAR/RAL), Stan Trier (NCAR/MMM), Morris Weisman (NCAR/MMM), Dave Ahijevych (NCAR/MMM), Michael Coniglio (NOAA/NSSL), Kent Knopfmeier (OU/CIMMS), NSSL, Storm Prediction Center
External Support
NOAA HWT award NA15OAR4590191: These environmental data and related items of information have not been formally disseminated by NOAA and do not represent and should not be construed to represent any agency determination, view, or policy.
Contact
ensemble AT ucar DOT edu