- Surface Conditions
- 2-m Temperature / 10-m Wind
- Ens Mean | Ens Max | Ens Min | Ens Spread | Postage Stamps
- Ens Mean Sfc T Anomaly | Prob Sfc T < 32 F
- 2-m Dewpoint / 10-m Wind
- Ens Mean | Ens Max | Ens Min | Ens Spread | Postage Stamps
- Ens Mean Sfc Td Anomaly
- Misc.
- Ens Mean: Heat Index | Wind Chill | PBL Height | 2-m RH
- Prob Visibility: < 3 mi | < 1 mi | < 0.25 mi
- Ens Spread: Mean Sea-level Pressure
- Postage Stamps: Equivalent Potential Temp. | 10-m wind
- Ensemble Plumes Page
- Precipitation
- 1-hr Precip
- Prob Matched Mean | Ensemble Max
- Neighbor Prob: > 0.01 in | > 0.25 in | > 0.5 in | > 1.0 in | > 2.0 in
- 6-hr Precip
- Ens Mean | Ensemble Max | Ensemble Min
- 24-hr Precip
- Ens Mean | Ensemble Max | Ensemble Min
- Accum. Precip
- Ens. Mean | Prob Matched Mean | Postage Stamps
- Neighbor Prob: > 1.0 in | > 2.0 in | > 3.0 in | > 6.0 in | > 10.0 in
- Reflectivity
- Ensemble Max: Comp Refl | 1 km AGL Refl
- Prob Match Mean: Comp Refl | 1 km AGL Refl
- Neighborhood Prob > 40 dBZ: Comp Refl | 1 km AGL Refl
- Paintball > 40 dBZ: Comp Refl | 1 km AGL Refl
- Postage Stamps: Comp Refl | 1 km AGL Refl
- Member Viewer: Comp Refl & UH
- Ensemble Mean Fields
- Wind/Height: 250 mb | 300 mb | 500 mb | 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
- Temperature: 250 mb | 300 mb | 500 mb | 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
- Relative Humidity: 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
- Dewpoint: 850 mb | 925 mb
- Absolute Vorticity: 500mb
- Potential Vorticity: 320K PV
- Ensemble Spread Fields
- Height: 250 mb | 300 mb | 500 mb | 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
- Wind Speed: 250 mb | 300 mb | 500 mb | 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
- Temperature: 250 mb | 300 mb | 500 mb | 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
- Dewpoint: 700 mb | 850 mb | 925 mb
- Probabilities
- Prob: 850 mb temperature < 0 C | 925 mb temperature < 0 C
- Precipitable water
- Ens mean | Postage stamps
- Simulated Satellite
- Member 1: Water Vapor | IR
- Postage Stamps: Water Vapor | IR
- Ensemble Soundings
- Ensemble Sounding Viewer
- Instability
- Ens Mean: SBCAPE | MLCAPE | MUCAPE | Lifted Index
- Ens Max: SBCAPE | MLCAPE
- Prob SBCAPE: > 500 | > 1000 | > 2000 | > 3000
- Prob MLCAPE: > 500 | > 1000 | > 2000 | > 3000
- Postage Stamps: SBCAPE
- LCL / LFC / BMIN / STP/ Echo tops
- Ens Mean: LCL Height | LFC Height | Parcel BMin
- Sig Tor Parameter (STP): Max | Mean | NEProb > 1 | NEProb > 3
- Echo tops: Max | Mean | Prob matched mean
- Neighborhood prob echo tops: > 30,000 ft | > 35,000 ft
- Wind shear
- Ens Mean: 0-1 km | 0-6 km
- Ens Max: 0-1 km | 0-6 km
- Storm-relative Helicity / Storm motion
- Ens Mean: 0-1 km | 0-3 km
- Ens Max: 0-1 km | 0-3 km
- Prob 0-1 km SRH: > 100 | > 300
- Prob 0-3 km SRH: > 200 | > 450
- Ens Mean: Bunkers Storm Motion
- Winter Precip
- 1-hr Accumulation
- Dominant 1-hr Precipitation Type
- 1-hr Probability of Winter Precip
- Snow: Ens Mean | Prob Match Mean | Stamp
- Snow Neighbor Probs: > 1" |
> 2" |
> 3"
- Freezing Rain: Ens Mean | Prob Match Mean | Stamp
- 6-hr Accumulation
- Snow: Ens mean | Ens max
- Freezing rain: Ens mean | Ens max
- 12-hr Accumulation
- Snow: Ens mean | Ens max
- Freezing rain: Ens mean | Ens max
- 24-hr Accumulation
- Snow: Ens mean | Ens max
- Freezing rain: Ens mean | Ens max
- Running total accumulation
- Snow: Ens mean | Prob Match Mean | Stamp
- Snow Neighbor Probs: > 1" | > 3" | > 6" | > 12" | > 24"
- Snow grid-point Probs: > 1" | > 3" | > 6" | > 12" | > 24"
- Freezing rain: Ens mean | Prob Match Mean
- Sleet: Ens mean | Prob Match Mean
- Hourly-max Rotation
- Ens Max: 2-5 km AGL UH | 0-3 km AGL UH (cyclonic)
- Ens Max: 2-5 km AGL UH (anticyclonic)
- Ens Max: 1km AGL Vorticity
- Paintball: UH > 50 | UH > 75 | UH > 100 | UH > 150
- Neighbor Prob: UH > 50 | UH > 75 | UH > 100 | UH > 150
- Hourly-max Updraft
- Ensemble Max Updraft
- Paintball: UP > 10 m/s | UP > 20 m/s
- Neighbor Prob: UP > 10 m/s | UP > 20 m/s
- Hourly-max Downdraft
- Ensemble Max Downdraft
- Paintball: DN > 5 m/s | DN > 10 m/s
- Neighbor Prob: DN > 5 m/s | DN > 10 m/s
- Hourly-max 10-m Wind Speed
- Ensemble Max Wind Speed
- Paintball: WS > 10 m/s | > 20 m/s | > 30 m/s
- Neighbor Prob: WS > 10 m/s | > 20 m/s | > 30 m/s
- Hourly-max Vert. Int. Graupel & Hail Size
- Ens Max: Graupel | Thomp. Hail | Hailcast | Gagne Hail
- Paintball >= 1 in: Graupel | Thomp. Hail | Gagne Hail
- Neighbor Prob >= 1 in: Graupel | Thomp. Hail | Gagne Hail
- Hourly-max Lightning Threat
- Ens Max: Ltg 1 | Ltg 2 | Ltg 3
- Lightning probability: Ltg 3 > 1 flash per 5 minutes
- Day 1 and 2 Severe Weather Probs
NCAR Ensemble output now publicly available!
We are happy to announce that raw data from the NCAR Ensemble are now available through NCAR/CISL's RDA. You may use the data for research or other endeavors. However, please consider the following:
- Data use is subject to UCAR's terms and conditions.
- If you publish work using NCAR Ensemble data, you should cite Schwartz et al. (2015) as a description of the system:
Schwartz, C.S., G.S. Romine, R.A. Sobash, K.R. Fossell, and M.L. Weisman, 2015: NCAR's experimental real-time convection-allowing ensemble prediction system. Wea. Forecasting, 30, 1645-1654, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0103.1.
- If using the output for research, we strongly suggest you email the NCAR Ensemble team to ensure your intended work has not already been done. Send us a message: ensemble (at) ucar (dot) edu.
- Please give appropriate acknowledgement to the NCAR Ensemble team.
- Files in the RDA are for historical forecasts only, but are updated regularly. For real-time data access, send us an email.
- Archived graphics are available through this site. Just click the calendar icon at the top of the page.
- Only a subset of diagnostic fields are available. If your field of interest is not present in the archive, the field is unavailable. But, you can reproduce the NCAR Ensemble forecasts with a bit of help. Please see below.
Click to access: NCAR Ensemble output
Reproducing NCAR Ensemble forecasts: initial and boundary conditions
- Initial and lateral boundary condition files are not contained in the CISL RDA. However, they are available from the NCAR Ensemble team. With these files, you can reproduce the NCAR Ensemble forecasts on your machine and slice and dice the output however you'd like!
- Although the NCAR Ensemble initializes 10-member, 48-h forecasts only from 0000 UTC, initial condition files are available every 6 hours from 80-member ensembles. Thus, you can use our analysis system to initialize forecasts at times other than 0000 UTC and with more than 10 members.